Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$14.0K
-$123.76
Smart Money Signal
14 of 24 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 83.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.7K | +$610.73 | 62% 2250-1366 (3616) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$3.11 | 43% 273-368 (641) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 94.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$118.52 | 54% 582-503 (1085) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$50.19 | 53% 643-560 (1203) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$145.89 | 41% 282-410 (692) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84¢ | $955.34 | $1.1K | +$182.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.7¢ | $327.94 | — | -$327.94 | |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$130.17 | 40% 280-421 (701) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.3¢ | $846.46 | $1.0K | +$169.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.7¢ | $300 | — | -$300 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 86.8¢ | $659.21 | $570 | -$78.47 | 57% 4034-3048 (7082) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $413.27 | $269.01 | -$144.26 | 50% 3513-3548 (7061) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.3¢ | $210.51 | $269.01 | +$58.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.7¢ | $202.76 | — | -$202.76 | |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $470.21 | $340 | -$130.21 | 47% 264-296 (560) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 68.9¢ | $256.65 | $276.77 | +$65.12 | 48% 463-495 (958) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $76.99 | $157.12 | +$80.13 | 48% 767-833 (1600) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR | Upavg 41.5¢ | $179.05 | — | -$153.47 | 44% 448-560 (1008) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Upavg 31.8¢ | $254.44 | — | -$212.89 | 44% 467-600 (1067) |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 28.8¢ | $116.03 | — | -$103.43 | 49% 481-506 (987) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $99.48 | $67.99 | -$31.49 | 53% 619-554 (1173) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $41 | $50 | +$9 | 28% 119-304 (423) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $21.27 | $41.43 | +$20.16 | 38% 363-587 (950) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.8¢ | $45.5 | — | -$45.5 | 78% 364-101 (465) |
ST stepaheadCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.4¢ | $42.91 | — | -$42.91 | 54% 3461-2909 (6370) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $9.41 | $19.6 | +$10.19 | 42% 457-634 (1091) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $7.27 | $6 | -$1.27 | 65% 923-492 (1415) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 49% 2797-2918 (5715) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $30.98 | $4.27 | -$1.16 | 61% 1022-653 (1675) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $16.85 | — | +$1.85 | 57% 888-659 (1547) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 52% 3111-2890 (6001) |
Invested
$3,115.86
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$610.73
Record
62%
2250-1366 (3616)
Invested
$3,103.51
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$3.11
Record
43%
273-368 (641)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$1,902.77
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$118.52
Record
54%
582-503 (1085)
Invested
$1,438.69
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$50.19
Record
53%
643-560 (1203)
Invested
$1,283.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$145.89
Record
41%
282-410 (692)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,146.45
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$130.17
Record
40%
280-421 (701)
Both legs:
Invested
$659.21
Value
$570
PnL
-$78.47
Record
57%
4034-3048 (7082)
Invested
$413.27
Value
$269.01
PnL
-$144.26
Record
50%
3513-3548 (7061)
Both legs:
Invested
$470.21
Value
$340
PnL
-$130.21
Record
47%
264-296 (560)
Invested
$256.65
Value
$276.77
PnL
+$65.12
Record
48%
463-495 (958)
Invested
$76.99
Value
$157.12
PnL
+$80.13
Record
48%
767-833 (1600)
Invested
$179.05
Value
—
PnL
-$153.47
Record
44%
448-560 (1008)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$254.44
Value
—
PnL
-$212.89
Record
44%
467-600 (1067)
ohioismCTRInvested
$116.03
Value
—
PnL
-$103.43
Record
49%
481-506 (987)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$99.48
Value
$67.99
PnL
-$31.49
Record
53%
619-554 (1173)
Invested
$41
Value
$50
PnL
+$9
Record
28%
119-304 (423)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$41.43
PnL
+$20.16
Record
38%
363-587 (950)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$45.5
Value
—
PnL
-$45.5
Record
78%
364-101 (465)
Invested
$42.91
Value
—
PnL
-$42.91
Record
54%
3461-2909 (6370)
Invested
$9.41
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$10.19
Record
42%
457-634 (1091)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.27
Record
65%
923-492 (1415)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
49%
2797-2918 (5715)
Invested
$30.98
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$1.16
Record
61%
1022-653 (1675)
Invested
$16.85
Value
—
PnL
+$1.85
Record
57%
888-659 (1547)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
52%
3111-2890 (6001)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $3.7K
0x50f7
Down — $3.1K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $1.8K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.5K
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Down — $570
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-5
Down — $340
uninformedfloww
Down — $276.77