Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 58%
1 arb excluded
$7.2K
$-2.6K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 26 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64¢ | $2.8K | $2.3K | -$512.92 | 67% 101382-49705 (151087) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 61.3¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 56% 15496-12177 (27673) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.16 | 91% 26742-2516 (29258) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 45.3¢ | $663.58 | $804.97 | +$141.39 | 29% 11448-27648 (39096) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 32.5¢ | $436.9 | $1.3K | +$907.58 | 50% 8191-8209 (16400) |
10 1000monkeysCTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $576.95 | — | -$576.95 | 59% 10707-7370 (18077) |
BO bosona | Downavg 30¢ | $188.75 | $500 | +$311.25 | 55% 51185-41537 (92722) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 59.3¢ | $405.6 | — | -$405.6 | 63% 60039-34531 (94570) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 57.3¢ | $299.96 | $317.56 | +$17.6 | 48% 5542-5979 (11521) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $208.58 | $208.79 | +$0.21 | 59% 63420-44459 (107879) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 91.2¢ | $177.03 | $173.27 | -$3.76 | 58% 62267-45634 (107901) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Upavg 63.3¢ | $94.98 | — | -$94.98 | 73% 95414-36055 (131469) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $226.01 | $89.76 | -$20.68 | 65% 128717-68964 (197681) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $36.98 | $86.96 | +$49.98 | 55% 51819-42268 (94087) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $36.38 | $84.29 | +$47.91 | 55% 49727-41275 (91002) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $90.95 | $77.19 | -$13.76 | 66% 129245-66642 (195887) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $77.04 | $52 | -$25.04 | 12% 18554-133897 (152451) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.9¢ | $55.47 | — | -$55.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.5¢ | $21.57 | $52 | +$30.43 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $60.8 | $63.46 | +$2.66 | 51% 11049-10545 (21594) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $56.63 | — | -$56.63 | 56% 59660-46262 (105922) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 66.6¢ | $19.98 | — | -$19.98 | 62% 45238-28305 (73543) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $27.63 | $45 | +$17.37 | 63% 41674-24305 (65979) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 74.4¢ | $37.12 | — | -$37.12 | 52% 11801-10818 (22619) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $10.8 | $12 | +$1.2 | 76% 9708-3130 (12838) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $731.94 | — | -$731.94 | 3% 23-685 (708) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.2¢ | $7.07 | — | -$7.07 | 52% 93032-87450 (180482) |
Invested
$2,798.41
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$512.92
Record
67%
101382-49705 (151087)
Invested
$1,477.33
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
56%
15496-12177 (27673)
Invested
$1,077.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.16
Record
91%
26742-2516 (29258)
Invested
$663.58
Value
$804.97
PnL
+$141.39
Record
29%
11448-27648 (39096)
Invested
$436.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$907.58
Record
50%
8191-8209 (16400)
Invested
$576.95
Value
—
PnL
-$576.95
Record
59%
10707-7370 (18077)
Invested
$188.75
Value
$500
PnL
+$311.25
Record
55%
51185-41537 (92722)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$405.6
Value
—
PnL
-$405.6
Record
63%
60039-34531 (94570)
Invested
$299.96
Value
$317.56
PnL
+$17.6
Record
48%
5542-5979 (11521)
Invested
$208.58
Value
$208.79
PnL
+$0.21
Record
59%
63420-44459 (107879)
Invested
$177.03
Value
$173.27
PnL
-$3.76
Record
58%
62267-45634 (107901)
Invested
$94.98
Value
—
PnL
-$94.98
Record
73%
95414-36055 (131469)
Invested
$226.01
Value
$89.76
PnL
-$20.68
Record
65%
128717-68964 (197681)
Invested
$36.98
Value
$86.96
PnL
+$49.98
Record
55%
51819-42268 (94087)
Invested
$36.38
Value
$84.29
PnL
+$47.91
Record
55%
49727-41275 (91002)
Invested
$90.95
Value
$77.19
PnL
-$13.76
Record
66%
129245-66642 (195887)
Invested
$77.04
Value
$52
PnL
-$25.04
Record
12%
18554-133897 (152451)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.8
Value
$63.46
PnL
+$2.66
Record
51%
11049-10545 (21594)
Invested
$56.63
Value
—
PnL
-$56.63
Record
56%
59660-46262 (105922)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
—
PnL
-$19.98
Record
62%
45238-28305 (73543)
ohioism<$100Invested
$27.63
Value
$45
PnL
+$17.37
Record
63%
41674-24305 (65979)
Invested
$37.12
Value
—
PnL
-$37.12
Record
52%
11801-10818 (22619)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$12
PnL
+$1.2
Record
76%
9708-3130 (12838)
Invested
$731.94
Value
—
PnL
-$731.94
Record
3%
23-685 (708)
Invested
$7.07
Value
—
PnL
-$7.07
Record
52%
93032-87450 (180482)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.3K
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
Hcrystallash
Down — $804.97
RLWG
Down — $1.3K
1000monkeys
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $500
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $317.56
0x50f7
Down — $208.79