Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Down 29%
$6.2K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 24 top traders (29%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.9K | +$346.68 | 67% 99986-48367 (148353) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 76.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$154.39 | 56% 14978-11767 (26745) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $377.84 | $501.95 | +$124.11 | 54% 15430-13329 (28759) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 62.9¢ | $284.52 | $293.26 | +$8.74 | 54% 11392-9686 (21078) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 69.1¢ | $149.52 | $209.97 | +$60.45 | 62% 44417-27365 (71782) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 59.9¢ | $168.92 | $185.41 | +$16.49 | 57% 6788-5031 (11819) |
AS asidjasiodja | Upavg 91.8¢ | $124.69 | $134.5 | +$9.81 | 61% 96225-60685 (156910) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 68.4¢ | $106.54 | $149.37 | +$42.83 | 55% 46026-38375 (84401) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $61.05 | $115 | +$53.95 | 58% 61212-44701 (105913) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $40.88 | $70 | +$29.13 | 56% 58755-45388 (104143) |
 AtomforgeCTR | Downavg 37.1¢ | $162.51 | — | -$162.51 | 64% 4402-2425 (6827) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $242.66 | $60.75 | +$11.92 | 65% 126618-67669 (194287) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $52.67 | $53.2 | +$0.53 | 93% 24457-1821 (26278) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 50.2¢ | $4.7K | — | $-4.7K | 50% 8012-8034 (16046) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $32.5 | $44.05 | +$11.55 | 66% 127335-65527 (192862) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $53.32 | — | -$53.32 | 54% 14599-12448 (27047) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $27.83 | $34.74 | +$6.91 | 52% 91507-85924 (177431) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $47.74 | $35.29 | +$10.83 | 64% 25150-13903 (39053) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $66.5 | — | -$66.5 | 68% 1727-815 (2542) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $25.5 | $30.24 | +$4.74 | 55% 18533-15123 (33656) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $22.33 | — | -$22.33 | 64% 58995-33560 (92555) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $20.4 | — | -$20.4 | 57% 12776-9500 (22276) |
GO GoodRecipientCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $10.1 | — | -$10.1 | 43% 668-870 (1538) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $10 | +$5.4 | 64% 40768-23425 (64193) |
Invested
$2,537.57
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$346.68
Record
67%
99986-48367 (148353)
Invested
$1,278.04
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$154.39
Record
56%
14978-11767 (26745)
Invested
$377.84
Value
$501.95
PnL
+$124.11
Record
54%
15430-13329 (28759)
Invested
$284.52
Value
$293.26
PnL
+$8.74
Record
54%
11392-9686 (21078)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$149.52
Value
$209.97
PnL
+$60.45
Record
62%
44417-27365 (71782)
Invested
$168.92
Value
$185.41
PnL
+$16.49
Record
57%
6788-5031 (11819)
Invested
$124.69
Value
$134.5
PnL
+$9.81
Record
61%
96225-60685 (156910)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$106.54
Value
$149.37
PnL
+$42.83
Record
55%
46026-38375 (84401)
Invested
$61.05
Value
$115
PnL
+$53.95
Record
58%
61212-44701 (105913)
Invested
$40.88
Value
$70
PnL
+$29.13
Record
56%
58755-45388 (104143)
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$162.51
Value
—
PnL
-$162.51
Record
64%
4402-2425 (6827)
Invested
$242.66
Value
$60.75
PnL
+$11.92
Record
65%
126618-67669 (194287)
Invested
$52.67
Value
$53.2
PnL
+$0.53
Record
93%
24457-1821 (26278)
Invested
$4,671.88
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
50%
8012-8034 (16046)
Invested
$32.5
Value
$44.05
PnL
+$11.55
Record
66%
127335-65527 (192862)
Invested
$53.32
Value
—
PnL
-$53.32
Record
54%
14599-12448 (27047)
Invested
$27.83
Value
$34.74
PnL
+$6.91
Record
52%
91507-85924 (177431)
Invested
$47.74
Value
$35.29
PnL
+$10.83
Record
64%
25150-13903 (39053)
Invested
$66.5
Value
—
PnL
-$66.5
Record
68%
1727-815 (2542)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$30.24
PnL
+$4.74
Record
55%
18533-15123 (33656)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$22.33
Value
—
PnL
-$22.33
Record
64%
58995-33560 (92555)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$20.4
Value
—
PnL
-$20.4
Record
57%
12776-9500 (22276)
Invested
$10.1
Value
—
PnL
-$10.1
Record
43%
668-870 (1538)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.4
Record
64%
40768-23425 (64193)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $2.9K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.4K
aswfadq1555
Up — $501.95
thesidehustle
Up — $293.26
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $209.97
peepeepoopoo24
Up — $185.41
asidjasiodja
Up — $134.5
MayorMamdani
Up — $149.37
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $115
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $70