Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 100%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$135.4

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,260

Combined PnL+$135.4

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.1¢	$480.15	$605.35	+$125.2	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 69.3¢	$135.85	$151.88	+$16.03	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 72.8¢	$122.7	$135.91	+$13.2	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$41.22	$44.51	+$3.29	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$53.43	$39.39	-$14.04	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 82.8¢	$35.87	$36.59	+$0.72	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$20.5	$21.94	+$1.44	68% 1708-799 (2507)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 53¢	$19.61	$18.69	-$0.93	56% 8353-6485 (14838)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$11.25	$11.28	+$0.03	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$12	$8.82	-$3.18	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.65	+$0.35	50% 7981-8012 (15993)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 72¢	$8.64	$6.06	-$2.58	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 73¢	$7.8	$5.4	-$2.4	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 73¢	$4.38	$3.03	-$1.35	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.53	-$0.38	58% 61090-44611 (105701)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$480.15

Value

$605.35

PnL

+$125.2

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$135.85

Value

$151.88

PnL

+$16.03

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

thesidehustle

Invested

$122.7

Value

$135.91

PnL

+$13.2

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$41.22

Value

$44.51

PnL

+$3.29

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$53.43

Value

$39.39

PnL

-$14.04

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$35.87

Value

$36.59

PnL

+$0.72

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$21.94

PnL

+$1.44

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$19.61

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

8353-6485 (14838)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$3.18

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$2.58

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$2.4

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.