Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$370.7

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,596

Combined PnL-$370.09

Down6 traders

Total Value$118.95

Total Shares327

Combined PnL-$0.62

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$346.72	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$840.84	$853.71	+$12.87	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 51.2¢	$284.98	$293.03	+$8.05	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$58.5	$58.75	+$0.25	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$71.1	$54.2	-$6.41	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 50¢	$37.5	$37.88	+$0.38	57% 12760-9487 (22247)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$54.93	$35.14	-$19.79	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$57.16	$34.55	-$22.61	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$51.89	$33.99	-$17.9	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$27.4	$31.33	+$3.93	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$14.06	$28.88	+$14.82	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 42¢	$21.3	$24.6	+$3.3	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 97¢	$24.87	$23.72	-$1.15	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
NIULAI4<$100	Upavg 98¢	$13.72	$13.93	+$0.21	76% 9516-2949 (12465)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$8.79	$10	+$1.22	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 9.7¢	$10.88	$8.4	-$2.48	54% 15429-13318 (28747)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 40¢	$3.65	$6.4	+$2.75	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$6.05	-$0.3	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 41¢	$3.59	$5.87	+$2.28	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$7.65	$4.41	-$3.24	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Upavg 40¢	$1.25	$1.11	-$0.14	68% 1708-799 (2507)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,415.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$346.72

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

hoodquant

Invested

$840.84

Value

$853.71

PnL

+$12.87

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

thesidehustle

Invested

$284.98

Value

$293.03

PnL

+$8.05

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.5

Value

$58.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$71.1

Value

$54.2

PnL

-$6.41

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

12760-9487 (22247)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$54.93

Value

$35.14

PnL

-$19.79

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$57.16

Value

$34.55

PnL

-$22.61

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$51.89

Value

$33.99

PnL

-$17.9

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.4

Value

$31.33

PnL

+$3.93

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$14.06

Value

$28.88

PnL

+$14.82

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$21.3

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$3.3

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$24.87

Value

$23.72

PnL

-$1.15

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

NIULAI4<$100

Invested

$13.72

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

76%

9516-2949 (12465)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.79

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.22

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.88

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$2.48

Record

54%

15429-13318 (28747)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$2.75

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$5.87

PnL

+$2.28

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.65

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$3.24

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.