Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 81%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$318.85
Smart Money Signal
17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 71.3¢ | $960 | $903.97 | -$56.03 | 67% 99930-48308 (148238) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.3¢ | $644.79 | $903.97 | +$259.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.5¢ | $315.2 | — | -$315.2 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 69.2¢ | $671.94 | $763.57 | +$91.64 | 56% 14924-11728 (26652) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $190.27 | $310.73 | +$120.46 | 58% 38498-27579 (66077) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 67.3¢ | $257.85 | $252.34 | -$5.51 | 54% 11314-9625 (20939) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 70.9¢ | $98.04 | $138.37 | +$40.33 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 97.3¢ | $122.99 | $101.73 | -$21.26 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 66¢ | $92.34 | $140 | +$47.66 | 56% 58635-45291 (103926) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $63.81 | $56.51 | -$6 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $42.39 | $45.58 | +$3.19 | 61% 96050-60547 (156597) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $26.64 | $40.22 | +$13.58 | 65% 4332-2383 (6715) |
GO GoodRecipient<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $43.5 | $79.99 | +$36.5 | 43% 656-861 (1517) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.4¢ | $32.22 | $35.26 | +$3.04 | 66% 127109-65406 (192515) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Upavg 65.4¢ | $13.5 | $20.63 | +$7.13 | 68% 1708-799 (2507) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.2¢ | $12.99 | — | -$12.99 | 58% 61090-44611 (105701) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $14.99 | $26.48 | +$11.49 | 58% 5897-4320 (10217) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $14.85 | — | -$14.85 | 58% 51349-37471 (88820) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $8.71 | $12 | +$3.29 | 64% 40639-23326 (63965) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $10.85 | $10 | -$0.85 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $5.04 | $6.07 | +$1.03 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $6 | $10 | +$4 | 50% 7981-8012 (15993) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.6¢ | $80.21 | — | -$1.49 | 57% 12760-9487 (22247) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $1.55 | — | -$1.55 | 54% 14578-12427 (27005) |
Invested
$960
Value
$903.97
PnL
-$56.03
Record
67%
99930-48308 (148238)
Both legs:
Invested
$671.94
Value
$763.57
PnL
+$91.64
Record
56%
14924-11728 (26652)
Invested
$190.27
Value
$310.73
PnL
+$120.46
Record
58%
38498-27579 (66077)
Invested
$257.85
Value
$252.34
PnL
-$5.51
Record
54%
11314-9625 (20939)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$98.04
Value
$138.37
PnL
+$40.33
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$122.99
Value
$101.73
PnL
-$21.26
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
Invested
$92.34
Value
$140
PnL
+$47.66
Record
56%
58635-45291 (103926)
Invested
$63.81
Value
$56.51
PnL
-$6
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$42.39
Value
$45.58
PnL
+$3.19
Record
61%
96050-60547 (156597)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$26.64
Value
$40.22
PnL
+$13.58
Record
65%
4332-2383 (6715)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$36.5
Record
43%
656-861 (1517)
Invested
$32.22
Value
$35.26
PnL
+$3.04
Record
66%
127109-65406 (192515)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$20.63
PnL
+$7.13
Record
68%
1708-799 (2507)
Invested
$12.99
Value
—
PnL
-$12.99
Record
58%
61090-44611 (105701)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$11.49
Record
58%
5897-4320 (10217)
Invested
$14.85
Value
—
PnL
-$14.85
Record
58%
51349-37471 (88820)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.71
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.29
Record
64%
40639-23326 (63965)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.85
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$1.03
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
Invested
$6
Value
$10
PnL
+$4
Record
50%
7981-8012 (15993)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$80.21
Value
—
PnL
-$1.49
Record
57%
12760-9487 (22247)
Invested
$1.55
Value
—
PnL
-$1.55
Record
54%
14578-12427 (27005)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $763.57
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $310.73
thesidehustle
Up — $252.34
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $138.37
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $101.73
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $140
aaa221
Up — $56.51
asidjasiodja
Up — $45.58
Atomforge
Up — $40.22