Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-08?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 84¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$797

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 83.5¢

+17% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares14,728

Combined PnL+$796.96

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.69

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.05

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.7¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$25.68	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.6¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$518.54	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 62¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$74.3	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 72.7¢	$918.7	$1.1K	+$132.78	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
GC GC-P	Noavg 68¢	$635.2	$639.56	+$4.36	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 67¢	$535.68	$563.67	+$27.98	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
NM NM-P	Noavg 67.8¢	$488.25	$493.52	+$5.22	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
VE Venusian	Noavg 86.1¢	$277.49	$274.01	-$3.48	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
RN1	Noavg 70¢	$221.67	$273.92	+$52.25	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 85.6¢	$218.96	$221.14	+$2.18	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$36.79	$37.29	+$0.49	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$20.8	$25.05	+$4.25	80% 5612-1434 (7046)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$17.3	$21.08	+$3.78	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.65	$2.69	+$0.05	46% 30568-35672 (66240)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,964.52

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$25.68

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,086.19

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$518.54

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,023.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$74.3

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

SnakeBall

Invested

$918.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$132.78

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

GC-P

Invested

$635.2

Value

$639.56

PnL

+$4.36

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

cigarettes

Invested

$535.68

Value

$563.67

PnL

+$27.98

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

NM-P

Invested

$488.25

Value

$493.52

PnL

+$5.22

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Venusian

Invested

$277.49

Value

$274.01

PnL

-$3.48

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

RN1

Invested

$221.67

Value

$273.92

PnL

+$52.25

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

LightParadox

Invested

$218.96

Value

$221.14

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$36.79

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$25.05

PnL

+$4.25

Record

80%

5612-1434 (7046)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$3.78

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.