Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$199.77

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 89¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares10,638

Combined PnL+$364.4

Yes2 traders

Total Value$199.58

Total Shares1,467

Combined PnL-$164.63

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78.4¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$156.75	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
RN1	Noavg 74.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$143.5	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$76.34	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
NM NM-P	Noavg 71¢	$1.1K	$774.61	-$6.17	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Noavg 71¢	$1.1K	$721.25	-$4	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 71¢	$715	$710	-$5	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$361.31	$196.73	-$164.58	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
dips.	Noavg 83.9¢	$165.69	$167.86	+$2.17	46% 12125-14052 (26177)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 84¢	$45.65	$46.47	+$0.82	46% 30579-35678 (66257)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$10	$2.85	-$0.05	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,725.48

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$156.75

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

RN1

Invested

$1,244.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$143.5

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,270.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$76.34

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

NM-P

Invested

$1,071.29

Value

$774.61

PnL

-$6.17

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Invested

$1,114.18

Value

$721.25

PnL

-$4

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

cigarettes

Invested

$715

Value

$710

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$361.31

Value

$196.73

PnL

-$164.58

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

dips.

Invested

$165.69

Value

$167.86

PnL

+$2.17

Record

46%

12125-14052 (26177)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$45.65

Value

$46.47

PnL

+$0.82

Record

46%

30579-35678 (66257)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.