Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-11-07?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.09

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,658

Combined PnL+$7.9

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,776

Combined PnL-$7.99

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Yesavg 62.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$7.9	57% 900-666 (1566)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$719.02	$716.1	-$2.92	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 39.2¢	$276.79	$272	-$4.79	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$51.71	$51.05	-$0.66	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$15.32	$15.52	+$0.2	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$10	$10.13	+$0.13	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.85	+$0.05	58% 47408-34193 (81601)

k56

Yes

Invested

$1,663.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.9

Record

57%

900-666 (1566)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$719.02

Value

$716.1

PnL

-$2.92

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$276.79

Value

$272

PnL

-$4.79

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$51.71

Value

$51.05

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$15.32

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.