Will SC Recife win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 74¢ · $963 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 33%
$963.45
-$50.53
67¢ → 74¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 77.4¢ | $442.57 | $448.71 | +$6.14 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 23.1¢ | $154.7 | $143.69 | -$11.02 | 36% 481-851 (1332) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $82.64 | $107.17 | +$24.53 | 37% 1063-1799 (2862) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 35.6¢ | $103.22 | $68.85 | -$34.37 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $62.8 | $66.8 | +$4 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $50 | $47.37 | -$2.63 | 43% 105-141 (246) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $62.66 | $30 | -$32.66 | 37% 996-1715 (2711) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $18.83 | $16.51 | -$2.32 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $15.68 | $15.68 | +$0 | 36% 979-1704 (2683) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $16.17 | $14.48 | -$1.7 | 55% 502-403 (905) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.2 | -$0.5 | 45% 34-41 (75) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $1 | $1.01 | +$0.01 | 49% 1173-1237 (2410) |
Invested
$442.57
Value
$448.71
PnL
+$6.14
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
Invested
$154.7
Value
$143.69
PnL
-$11.02
Record
36%
481-851 (1332)
Invested
$82.64
Value
$107.17
PnL
+$24.53
Record
37%
1063-1799 (2862)
RN1CTRInvested
$103.22
Value
$68.85
PnL
-$34.37
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$62.8
Value
$66.8
PnL
+$4
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
Invested
$50
Value
$47.37
PnL
-$2.63
Record
43%
105-141 (246)
Invested
$62.66
Value
$30
PnL
-$32.66
Record
37%
996-1715 (2711)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$16.51
PnL
-$2.32
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$15.68
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
979-1704 (2683)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$14.48
PnL
-$1.7
Record
55%
502-403 (905)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
45%
34-41 (75)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
49%
1173-1237 (2410)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.