AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$375.65

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 86.5¢

+57% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL+$380.63

Over3 traders

Total Value$12.34

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$4.98

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Underavg 56¢	$761.9	$1.1K	+$312.92	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$919.17	$596.39	-$322.78	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$769.91	$425.5	-$344.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$149.25	$170.88	+$21.63
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 63.5¢	$337.82	$281.27	-$52.55	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.5¢	$172.45	$214.46	+$42.02
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$156.04	$66.81	-$94.57
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 49.2¢	$106.5	$171.2	+$64.7	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 27.1¢	$11.53	$8.94	-$2.59	48% 621-673 (1294)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.41	$7.41	+$3	35% 622-1179 (1801)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$4.77	$2.26	-$2.5	35% 235-434 (669)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$4.92	$1.14	+$0.11	52% 836-757 (1593)

suntori

Under

Invested

$761.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$312.92

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$919.17

Value

$596.39

PnL

-$322.78

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

Both legs:

Over$769.9138¢-$344.41

Under$149.2569¢+$21.63

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$337.82

Value

$281.27

PnL

-$52.55

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

Both legs:

Under$172.4563.5¢+$42.02

Over$156.0449¢-$94.57

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$106.5

Value

$171.2

PnL

+$64.7

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.53

Value

$8.94

PnL

-$2.59

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.41

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$3

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.77

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$2.5

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.92

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.