AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 1.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 64¢ · $779 held · ended Nov 12

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$779.42

Combined PnL

$256.82

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 63.5¢

+72% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$681.19

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL+$240.98

Over2 traders

Total Value$98.22

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$15.84

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 33.8¢	$156.49	$264.03	+$107.54	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 55.3¢	$187.45	$205.57	+$18.12	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 27.1¢	$49.57	$104.39	+$54.82	35% 622-1179 (1801)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$80.43	$96.07	+$15.64	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 22¢	$15.15	$39.26	+$24.11	35% 235-434 (669)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 27.1¢	$14.68	$30.92	+$16.25	34% 610-1204 (1814)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$11.05	$25.65	+$14.6	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 33¢	$4.5	$7.77	+$3.27	33% 589-1191 (1780)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 21¢	$1.33	$3.6	+$2.28	47% 508-580 (1088)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.15	+$0.2	44% 442-557 (999)

RN1

Under

Invested

$156.49

Value

$264.03

PnL

+$107.54

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$187.45

Value

$205.57

PnL

+$18.12

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$49.57

Value

$104.39

PnL

+$54.82

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.43

Value

$96.07

PnL

+$15.64

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$15.15

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$24.11

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$14.68

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$16.25

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$11.05

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$14.6

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$3.27

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$1.33

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$2.28

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

442-557 (999)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.