AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 0.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 74¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$439.97

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,450

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares8,666

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 93¢	$5.1K	$4.0K	$-1.1K	— 9-2 (11)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 10.9¢	$603.03	$1.1K	+$497.78	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 7¢	$209.54	$793.27	+$583.72	34% 610-1204 (1814)
RN1CTR	Underavg 7.1¢	$118.07	$441.45	+$323.38	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 94¢	$203.36	$252.85	+$49.49	47% 508-580 (1088)
└ Over leg	Overavg 94¢	$177.28	$138.62	-$38.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 6.1¢	$26.09	$114.24	+$88.15
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 6.4¢	$26.7	$110.81	+$84.11	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$4.11	$11.65	+$7.53	33% 589-1191 (1780)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.25	$4.25	+$3	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.16	$3.83	+$2.67	35% 235-434 (669)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$5,067.77

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

—

9-2 (11)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$603.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$497.78

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$209.54

Value

$793.27

PnL

+$583.72

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$118.07

Value

$441.45

PnL

+$323.38

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$203.36

Value

$252.85

PnL

+$49.49

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

Both legs:

Over$177.2894¢-$38.66

Under$26.096.1¢+$88.15

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$26.7

Value

$110.81

PnL

+$84.11

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.11

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$7.53

Record

33%

589-1191 (1780)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.25

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.16

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$2.67

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.