Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Operário Ferroviário EC, while the market favors AA Ponte Preta (88%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Operário Ferroviário EC (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Operário Ferroviário EC (70%) · Operário Ferroviário EC at 12¢ · $886 held · ended Nov 12

Operário Ferroviário EC12¢AA Ponte Preta88¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Operário Ferroviário EC

Consensus Traders

Operário Ferroviário EC 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$885.73

Combined PnL

$93.08

Smart Money Entry

15.1¢ → 12¢

-21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOperário Ferroviário EC at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Operário Ferroviário EC

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors AA Ponte Preta 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Operário Ferroviário EC12%

AA Ponte Preta88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Operário Ferroviário EC7 traders

Total Value$388.09

Total Shares1,667

Combined PnL+$89.7

AA Ponte Preta3 traders

Total Value$131.22

Total Shares155

Combined PnL+$3.39

Operário Ferroviário EC — 70%AA Ponte Preta — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Operário Ferroviário EC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOperário Ferroviário EC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOperário Ferroviário EC 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOperário Ferroviário EC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Operário Ferroviário EC 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 81.2¢	$334.08	$366.41	+$32.33	55% 1738-1449 (3187)
└ AA Ponte Preta leg	AA Ponte Pretaavg 81.2¢	$195.97	$196.76	+$0.79
└ Operário Ferroviário EC leg	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 15.1¢	$138.11	$169.65	+$31.54
RN1CTR	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 14¢	$232.05	$319	+$86.95	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 92¢	$89.01	$77.4	-$11.61	22% 21-76 (97)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 33.3¢	$44.91	$44.44	-$0.47	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 67¢	$32.16	$44.16	+$12	54% 244-207 (451)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 16.5¢	$8.25	$10	+$1.75	31% 58-128 (186)
SE sentrio<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 63.5¢	$6.67	$9.66	+$3	42% 662-917 (1579)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 13¢	$5.57	$8.57	+$3	45% 465-578 (1043)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 17¢	$3.03	$3.57	+$0.53	34% 349-676 (1025)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 36¢	$2.54	$1.41	-$1.13	35% 657-1232 (1889)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Operário Ferroviário ECavg 37¢	$2.04	$1.1	-$0.94	34% 639-1259 (1898)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$334.08

Value

$366.41

PnL

+$32.33

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

Both legs:

AA Ponte Preta$195.9781.2¢+$0.79

Operário Ferroviário EC$138.1115.1¢+$31.54

RN1CTR

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$232.05

Value

$319

PnL

+$86.95

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$89.01

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$11.61

Record

22%

21-76 (97)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$44.91

Value

$44.44

PnL

-$0.47

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$32.16

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$12

Record

54%

244-207 (451)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$8.25

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.75

Record

31%

58-128 (186)

sentrio<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$6.67

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$3

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

lryyyCTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$5.57

Value

$8.57

PnL

+$3

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.53

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$2.54

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.13

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Operário Ferroviário EC

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.94

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

Research grade

AvoidOperário Ferroviário EC at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Operário Ferroviário EC

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors AA Ponte Preta 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Operário Ferroviário EC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOperário Ferroviário EC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOperário Ferroviário EC 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOperário Ferroviário EC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Operário Ferroviário EC 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Operário Ferroviário EC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.