Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$33.95
80.5¢ → 82.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 80.8¢ | $960.01 | $980.59 | +$20.58 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $367.8 | $349.78 | -$18.03 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $213.2 | $214.5 | +$1.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20¢ | $154.6 | $135.27 | -$19.33 | |
LI Limousin | Noavg 80¢ | $261.62 | $269.8 | +$8.18 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 80¢ | $207.2 | $213.67 | +$6.47 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $11.61 | $10.16 | -$1.45 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $11.37 | $5.4 | +$0.17 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
Invested
$960.01
Value
$980.59
PnL
+$20.58
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$367.8
Value
$349.78
PnL
-$18.03
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
Invested
$261.62
Value
$269.8
PnL
+$8.18
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$207.2
Value
$213.67
PnL
+$6.47
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$1.45
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.37
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.17
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.