Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$8.2

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,145

Combined PnL-$8.25

No1 trader

Total Value$2.25

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 57.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$5.84	51% 1851-1805 (3656)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 58.6¢	$127.99	$126.08	-$1.91	38% 351-584 (935)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$17.7	$17.25	-$0.45	52% 463-433 (896)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.75	-$0.05	41% 260-381 (641)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	22% 33-119 (152)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,751.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$5.84

Record

51%

1851-1805 (3656)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$127.99

Value

$126.08

PnL

-$1.91

Record

38%

351-584 (935)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

463-433 (896)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

260-381 (641)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

22%

33-119 (152)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.