AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,338

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$11.42

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$76.12

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fortuneking	Underavg 67¢	$5.9K	$8.9K	+$2.9K	— 7-8 (15)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 86¢	$208.66	$242.51	+$33.85	33% 340-676 (1016)
RN1	Underavg 79¢	$117.98	$104.35	-$13.63	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 62¢	$68.82	$104.34	+$35.52	54% 217-187 (404)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$80.39	$11.16	-$69.24	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 62¢	$0.99	$1.5	+$0.51	47% 508-580 (1088)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$1.85	$0.25	-$1.6	41% 614-874 (1488)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$5.3	$0.01	-$5.29	35% 235-434 (669)

fortuneking

Under

Invested

$5,948.82

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

—

7-8 (15)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$208.66

Value

$242.51

PnL

+$33.85

Record

33%

340-676 (1016)

RN1

Under

Invested

$117.98

Value

$104.35

PnL

-$13.63

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$68.82

Value

$104.34

PnL

+$35.52

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.39

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$69.24

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

508-580 (1088)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.6

Record

41%

614-874 (1488)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.29

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.