Will AA Ponte Preta vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 61¢ · $699 held · ended Nov 12

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$698.77

Combined PnL

$113.6

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 60.5¢

-16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$287.78

Total Shares453

Combined PnL-$47.73

Yes6 traders

Total Value$410.99

Total Shares1,041

Combined PnL+$161.33

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70.1¢	$240.61	$211.2	-$29.4	55% 1709-1415 (3124)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$126.66	$208.63	+$81.98	34% 610-1204 (1814)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$88.13	$151.35	+$63.22	33% 593-1215 (1808)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$78.7	$62.77	-$15.93	35% 235-434 (669)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$15.78	$26.72	+$10.94	35% 622-1179 (1801)
RN1<$100	Noavg 71¢	$16.21	$13.81	-$2.4	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$11.64	$12.97	+$3.52	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$9.37	$10.88	+$1.52	23% 192-655 (847)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$0.28	$0.44	+$0.15	51% 2691-2616 (5307)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$240.61

Value

$211.2

PnL

-$29.4

Record

55%

1709-1415 (3124)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.66

Value

$208.63

PnL

+$81.98

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$88.13

Value

$151.35

PnL

+$63.22

Record

33%

593-1215 (1808)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$78.7

Value

$62.77

PnL

-$15.93

Record

35%

235-434 (669)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.78

Value

$26.72

PnL

+$10.94

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

RN1<$100

Invested

$16.21

Value

$13.81

PnL

-$2.4

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.64

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$3.52

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.37

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$1.52

Record

23%

192-655 (847)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.