Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will SC Recife win on 2026-11-06?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 42¢ · $437 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$436.92
$7.61
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $306.18 | $299.93 | -$2.32 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $166.43 | $173.84 | +$7.9 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.8¢ | $139.75 | $126.1 | -$10.22 | |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $73.57 | $84.81 | +$11.24 | 64% 1958-1090 (3048) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $30.59 | $27.96 | -$2.63 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $10.17 | $10.78 | +$0.78 | 48% 7398-7927 (15325) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $9.99 | $8.59 | -$1.32 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $12.67 | $4.84 | -$0.46 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
Invested
$306.18
Value
$299.93
PnL
-$2.32
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.57
Value
$84.81
PnL
+$11.24
Record
64%
1958-1090 (3048)
Invested
$30.59
Value
$27.96
PnL
-$2.63
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
48%
7398-7927 (15325)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$8.59
PnL
-$1.32
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.67
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.