Will CR Brasil win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 74¢ · $785 held · ends Nov 8

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$784.94

Combined PnL

$23.21

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 74¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$382.8

Total Shares514

Combined PnL+$30

No4 traders

Total Value$60.21

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$6.79

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$337.54	$294.96	-$42.58	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.1¢	$202.46	$165.31	-$37.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.1¢	$135.08	$129.65	-$5.43
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 58.7¢	$128.55	$159.96	+$39.54	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
ocr7	Yesavg 72.4¢	$136.39	$139.48	+$3.08	55% 1405-1154 (2559)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$73.03	$63.46	-$9.13	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 27¢	$48	$46.97	-$1.03	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
└ No leg	Noavg 27¢	$27.74	$26.71	-$1.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$20.26	$20.26	+$0
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$37.01	$35.64	-$1.37	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$21.35	$19.9	-$3.5	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 25.9¢	$10.89	$11.34	+$0.45	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$9.24	$8.9	-$0.34	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$9.44	$4.32	-$5.52	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$337.54

Value

$294.96

PnL

-$42.58

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

No$202.4633.1¢-$37.14

Yes$135.0876.1¢-$5.43

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$128.55

Value

$159.96

PnL

+$39.54

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

ocr7

Yes

Invested

$136.39

Value

$139.48

PnL

+$3.08

Record

55%

1405-1154 (2559)

Oddstorm<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.03

Value

$63.46

PnL

-$9.13

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$46.97

PnL

-$1.03

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Both legs:

No$27.7427¢-$1.03

Yes$20.2674¢+$0

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$37.01

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$1.37

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.35

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$3.5

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.44

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$5.52

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.