Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 4.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.5

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 97.5¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,419

Combined PnL+$102.47

Over8 traders

Total Value$154.47

Total Shares2,007

Combined PnL-$110.97

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 88.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$142.79	56% 1575-1256 (2831)
RN1	Underavg 85¢	$462.96	$422.64	-$40.32	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 14.3¢	$173.45	$92.88	-$80.57	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$24.82	$23.25	-$1.57	38% 156-251 (407)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$29.89	$16.09	-$13.79	46% 292-339 (631)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$8.69	$8.69	+$0	31% 406-905 (1311)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$17.58	$8.2	-$9.38	31% 407-907 (1314)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$9.04	$4.52	-$4.52	52% 490-447 (937)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$1.02	$0.48	-$0.54	31% 405-886 (1291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.35	-$0.6	39% 382-610 (992)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,874.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$142.79

Record

56%

1575-1256 (2831)

RN1

Under

Invested

$462.96

Value

$422.64

PnL

-$40.32

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$173.45

Value

$92.88

PnL

-$80.57

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.82

Value

$23.25

PnL

-$1.57

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.89

Value

$16.09

PnL

-$13.79

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.58

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$9.38

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.04

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$4.52

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.54

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.6

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.