Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 3.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 72¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$424.74
$2.32
68.9¢ → 71.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 68.8¢ | $281.27 | $291.92 | +$10.66 | 51% 1833-1787 (3620) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 31.9¢ | $83.07 | $75.45 | -$7.62 | 31% 380-865 (1245) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $27.72 | $27.24 | -$0.48 | 30% 373-868 (1241) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 70.6¢ | $19.23 | $19.07 | -$0.16 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $6.65 | $6.65 | -$0 | 38% 137-221 (358) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $4.48 | $4.4 | -$0.08 | 31% 379-844 (1223) |
Invested
$281.27
Value
$291.92
PnL
+$10.66
Record
51%
1833-1787 (3620)
Invested
$83.07
Value
$75.45
PnL
-$7.62
Record
31%
380-865 (1245)
Invested
$27.72
Value
$27.24
PnL
-$0.48
Record
30%
373-868 (1241)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$19.07
PnL
-$0.16
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$6.65
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
137-221 (358)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.08
Record
31%
379-844 (1223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.