Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 48¢ · $817 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$816.96
-$12.6
48.9¢ → 47.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $479.43 | $469.65 | -$9.78 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $289.39 | $291.96 | +$2.57 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.7¢ | $215.31 | $210.62 | -$4.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43.3¢ | $74.08 | $81.34 | +$7.26 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 58.2¢ | $32.53 | $29.36 | -$3.17 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $23.11 | $23.11 | +$0 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.52 | $2.88 | +$0.36 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
Invested
$479.43
Value
$469.65
PnL
-$9.78
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$289.39
Value
$291.96
PnL
+$2.57
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.53
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$3.17
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$23.11
Value
$23.11
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.36
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.