Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$479.62
25¢ → 52¢
+108% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Underavg 25¢ | $566.51 | $929.08 | +$362.57 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
LI Limousin | Underavg 24.3¢ | $136.74 | $231.11 | +$94.37 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $147.71 | $198.88 | +$51.17 | 56% 1575-1256 (2831) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 25¢ | $90.05 | $147.68 | +$57.63 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 66.4¢ | $57.66 | $51.2 | -$6.46 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 76.4¢ | $95.67 | $128.12 | +$32.45 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 19¢ | $35.13 | $81.35 | +$46.22 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 76.4¢ | $60.54 | $46.76 | -$13.77 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 25.6¢ | $26.39 | $42.34 | +$15.95 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 28.8¢ | $13.81 | $19.68 | +$5.87 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $5.13 | $6.04 | +$0.91 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $2.95 | -$1.1 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $1.47 | $2.5 | +$1.04 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
Invested
$566.51
Value
$929.08
PnL
+$362.57
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$136.74
Value
$231.11
PnL
+$94.37
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$147.71
Value
$198.88
PnL
+$51.17
Record
56%
1575-1256 (2831)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.67
Value
$128.12
PnL
+$32.45
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.39
Value
$42.34
PnL
+$15.95
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$19.68
PnL
+$5.87
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.13
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$0.91
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$1.1
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.04
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.