Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 0.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 94¢ · $421 held · ends Nov 14

Over94¢Under6¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$421.17

Combined PnL

-$184.73

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 93.7¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$333.43

Total Shares635

Combined PnL-$260.4

Under3 traders

Total Value$87.74

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$75.67

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 93.5¢	$482.19	$270.75	-$211.44	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
SE sentrio	Overavg 93.5¢	$111.64	$62.69	-$48.95	37% 340-570 (910)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 6.5¢	$7.76	$56.72	+$48.95	30% 377-862 (1239)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 6.6¢	$4.24	$30.52	+$26.28	30% 372-861 (1233)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 6.5¢	$0.07	$0.51	+$0.44	45% 262-316 (578)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$482.19

Value

$270.75

PnL

-$211.44

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$111.64

Value

$62.69

PnL

-$48.95

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.76

Value

$56.72

PnL

+$48.95

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.24

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$26.28

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.44

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.