Spread: Londrina EC (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clube Náutico Capibaribe (33%) · Clube Náutico Capibaribe at 69¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Clube Náutico Capibaribe
6
Clube Náutico Capibaribe 33%
$392.99
$3.19
70.4¢ → 68.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralClube Náutico Capibaribe at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Clube Náutico Capibaribe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 71¢ | $213 | $204 | -$9 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Londrina ECavg 29.3¢ | $127.61 | $137.31 | +$9.7 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $34 | +$0.5 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Londrina ECavg 28.2¢ | $11.34 | $12.85 | +$1.51 | 30% 384-878 (1262) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Londrina ECavg 28¢ | $2.44 | $2.78 | +$0.35 | 31% 388-857 (1245) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Londrina ECavg 30¢ | $1.92 | $2.05 | +$0.13 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$213
Value
$204
PnL
-$9
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$127.61
Value
$137.31
PnL
+$9.7
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$34
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$12.85
PnL
+$1.51
Record
30%
384-878 (1262)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.35
Record
31%
388-857 (1245)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.13
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.