Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 21¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 11

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$169.48

Combined PnL

-$2.73

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$82.08

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$2.76

Yes4 traders

Total Value$87.4

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$78.04	$75.18	-$2.86	45% 267-322 (589)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$64.36	$64.43	+$0.07	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20	$20	+$0	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$6.9	+$0.1	52% 464-433 (897)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.97	$1.97	+$0	38% 352-584 (936)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$1	-$0.05	30% 379-881 (1260)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$78.04

Value

$75.18

PnL

-$2.86

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.36

Value

$64.43

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

379-881 (1260)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.