Will Londrina EC win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$110.88
55.9¢ → 58.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $869.4 | $943.39 | +$73.99 | 31% 393-875 (1268) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 58¢ | $718 | $724.19 | +$6.19 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $199.37 | $138.41 | +$25.81 | 51% 1857-1809 (3666) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $75.11 | $77.92 | +$2.82 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $56.08 | $51.86 | -$4.22 | 30% 383-882 (1265) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $31.7 | $30.66 | -$1.04 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $24.38 | $21.2 | -$3.18 | |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $27.52 | $29.52 | +$2 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.07 | +$0.07 | 38% 355-588 (943) |
Invested
$869.4
Value
$943.39
PnL
+$73.99
Record
31%
393-875 (1268)
Invested
$718
Value
$724.19
PnL
+$6.19
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$199.37
Value
$138.41
PnL
+$25.81
Record
51%
1857-1809 (3666)
Invested
$75.11
Value
$77.92
PnL
+$2.82
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
Invested
$56.08
Value
$51.86
PnL
-$4.22
Record
30%
383-882 (1265)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.52
Value
$29.52
PnL
+$2
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.07
Record
38%
355-588 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.