Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: Draw at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 94¢ · $703 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$703.31
-$11.42
68.1¢ → 93.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Yesavg 73.5¢ | $215.95 | $208.58 | -$7.36 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 66.3¢ | $158.64 | $169.86 | +$11.22 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 32.4¢ | $175.41 | $157.17 | -$18.23 | 56% 1575-1256 (2831) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $81.33 | $89.16 | +$7.83 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $47.34 | $53.65 | +$6.31 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $26.55 | $13.05 | -$13.5 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $9.07 | $10.39 | +$1.32 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $1.45 | +$1 | 45% 249-302 (551) |
Invested
$215.95
Value
$208.58
PnL
-$7.36
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$158.64
Value
$169.86
PnL
+$11.22
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$175.41
Value
$157.17
PnL
-$18.23
Record
56%
1575-1256 (2831)
Invested
$81.33
Value
$89.16
PnL
+$7.83
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
RN1<$100Invested
$47.34
Value
$53.65
PnL
+$6.31
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$26.55
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$13.5
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$9.07
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$1.32
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$1
Record
45%
249-302 (551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.