Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 34¢ · $619 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$618.82
$0.71
33.9¢ → 34¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 33.9¢ | $242.48 | $242.12 | -$0.36 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33.9¢ | $180.84 | $181.4 | +$0.56 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 67¢ | $61.64 | $60.72 | -$0.92 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 34¢ | $171.76 | $171.76 | +$0 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Overavg 34¢ | $159.63 | $159.63 | +$0 | — 6-5 (11) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $30.36 | $31.28 | +$0.92 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $14.24 | $14.03 | -$0.21 | 38% 352-584 (936) |
Invested
$242.48
Value
$242.12
PnL
-$0.36
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Both legs:
Invested
$171.76
Value
$171.76
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$159.63
Value
$159.63
PnL
+$0
Record
—
6-5 (11)
Invested
$30.36
Value
$31.28
PnL
+$0.92
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
Invested
$14.24
Value
$14.03
PnL
-$0.21
Record
38%
352-584 (936)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.