Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$355.02

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 99.5¢

+107% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$935.56

Total Shares1,113

Combined PnL+$375.87

Over5 traders

Total Value$37.45

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$20.85

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Underavg 32.5¢	$125.65	$274.32	+$148.68	31% 405-886 (1291)
GA gaclfz	Underavg 95.8¢	$197.53	$205.2	+$7.67	7% 13-164 (177)
LI Limousin	Underavg 34.2¢	$80.89	$199.68	+$118.79	30% 399-910 (1309)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 40.6¢	$85.19	$156.45	+$71.26	31% 406-905 (1311)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 71¢	$131.31	$123.51	-$7.8	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28¢	$29.83	$82.04	+$52.21
└ Over leg	Overavg 71¢	$101.48	$41.47	-$60.01
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$124.55	$120.23	-$4.32	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$67.15	$93.38	+$26.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$57.4	$26.85	-$30.55
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$54.06	$84.49	+$30.43	31% 407-907 (1314)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$40.33	$16.95	-$23.38	52% 490-447 (937)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 38.7¢	$12	$8.99	-$3.01	45% 249-302 (551)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$2.47	$7.97	+$5.49	38% 156-251 (407)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 58.1¢	$6.38	$7.79	+$1.41	46% 292-339 (631)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 93¢	$10	$7.63	-$2.37	32% 229-489 (718)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 29.7¢	$3.29	$3.2	-$0.08	53% 5779-5161 (10940)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.21	$0.34	+$0.13	29% 173-422 (595)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$125.65

Value

$274.32

PnL

+$148.68

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

gaclfz

Under

Invested

$197.53

Value

$205.2

PnL

+$7.67

Record

13-164 (177)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$80.89

Value

$199.68

PnL

+$118.79

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$85.19

Value

$156.45

PnL

+$71.26

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$131.31

Value

$123.51

PnL

-$7.8

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

Under$29.8328¢+$52.21

Over$101.4871¢-$60.01

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$124.55

Value

$120.23

PnL

-$4.32

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Both legs:

Under$67.1551.1¢+$26.23

Over$57.462¢-$30.55

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$54.06

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$30.43

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.33

Value

$16.95

PnL

-$23.38

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$3.01

Record

45%

249-302 (551)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.47

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$5.49

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$6.38

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$1.41

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$2.37

Record

32%

229-489 (718)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

5779-5161 (10940)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.13

Record

29%

173-422 (595)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.