Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $41 held · ended Nov 11

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$40.75

Combined PnL

$0.67

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$40.75

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$0.67

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$19.6	$19.6	+$0	31% 407-907 (1314)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$9.8	$11.03	+$1.23	46% 292-339 (631)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$7.91	$7.03	-$0.88	31% 405-886 (1291)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$2.2	$2.2	+$0	31% 406-905 (1311)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.45	-$0.05	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.08	$0.45	+$0.37	38% 156-251 (407)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.6

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$1.23

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.91

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$0.88

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.37

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.