Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 23¢ · $284 held · ended Nov 11

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$284.07

Combined PnL

-$77.65

Smart Money Entry

18.7¢ → 22.6¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$148.22

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$4.46

Yes6 traders

Total Value$135.86

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL-$82.11

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 86¢	$113.84	$118.1	+$4.27	46% 292-339 (631)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$176.33	$89.68	-$86.66	31% 407-907 (1314)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 81¢	$29.92	$30.11	+$0.2	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$19.26	$18.83	-$0.43	31% 406-905 (1311)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$11	$15	+$4	52% 490-447 (937)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$7.54	$7.82	+$0.28	31% 405-886 (1291)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.55	$3.19	+$0.64	30% 399-910 (1309)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$1.29	$1.35	+$0.06	38% 156-251 (407)

SnakeBall

Invested

$113.84

Value

$118.1

PnL

+$4.27

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.33

Value

$89.68

PnL

-$86.66

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

$30.11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.26

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$0.43

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$15

PnL

+$4

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.28

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0.64

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.06

Record

38%

156-251 (407)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.5%

22.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$308.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

408.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.