Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: Both Teams to Score
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 65¢ · $490 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$490.15
$51.59
46.6¢ → 64.5¢
+38% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 47¢ | $257.94 | $252.61 | -$5.33 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 46¢ | $76.16 | $109.27 | +$33.11 | 38% 156-251 (407) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $38.89 | $57.04 | +$18.15 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $47.89 | $46.87 | -$1.02 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $15.38 | $22.07 | +$6.69 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
Invested
$257.94
Value
$252.61
PnL
-$5.33
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$76.16
Value
$109.27
PnL
+$33.11
Record
38%
156-251 (407)
Invested
$38.89
Value
$57.04
PnL
+$18.15
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$47.89
Value
$46.87
PnL
-$1.02
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$22.07
PnL
+$6.69
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.