Will EC Juventude win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 70¢ · $842 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 73%
$841.83
$3.89
70.4¢ → 69.5¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 69¢ | $215 | $215 | -$0 | 53% 2055-1798 (3853) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 27.1¢ | $156.62 | $172.45 | +$15.82 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 72.3¢ | $126.8 | $120.93 | -$5.87 | 61% 1039-654 (1693) |
 Rafifa<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $100 | $94.52 | -$5.48 | — 4-5 (9) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $75.04 | $75.04 | +$0 | 37% 351-601 (952) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $69.37 | $69.37 | +$0 | 59% 3761-2586 (6347) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $63.85 | $62.09 | -$1.76 | 55% 447-361 (808) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $13.31 | $15.04 | +$1.73 | 42% 979-1345 (2324) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $9.49 | $8.97 | -$0.52 | 45% 260-317 (577) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $13.09 | $6.9 | -$0.2 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.53 | +$0.17 | 48% 2045-2201 (4246) |
Invested
$215
Value
$215
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2055-1798 (3853)
Invested
$156.62
Value
$172.45
PnL
+$15.82
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$126.8
Value
$120.93
PnL
-$5.87
Record
61%
1039-654 (1693)
Rafifa<$100Invested
$100
Value
$94.52
PnL
-$5.48
Record
—
4-5 (9)
Invested
$75.04
Value
$75.04
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
351-601 (952)
Invested
$69.37
Value
$69.37
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3761-2586 (6347)
Invested
$63.85
Value
$62.09
PnL
-$1.76
Record
55%
447-361 (808)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$15.04
PnL
+$1.73
Record
42%
979-1345 (2324)
Invested
$9.49
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$0.52
Record
45%
260-317 (577)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$13.09
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$0.17
Record
48%
2045-2201 (4246)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.