Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$37.55

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 91.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,309

Combined PnL+$9.72

Yes8 traders

Total Value$435.18

Total Shares5,382

Combined PnL+$27.82

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$14.25	47% 936-1036 (1972)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93¢	$616.74	$626.69	+$9.95	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 92¢	$396.01	$402.47	+$6.46	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 92¢	$327.34	$327.34	+$0	32% 99-208 (307)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$292.58	$321.5	+$28.91	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
LI Limousin	Noavg 92¢	$192.5	$195.64	+$3.14	36% 975-1701 (2676)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90.8¢	$137.13	$141.21	+$4.08	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$64.05	$64.4	+$0.35	55% 499-401 (900)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$44.25	$42.81	-$1.44	37% 367-618 (985)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$28.79	$28.45	-$0.34	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$20.9	$19.51	-$1.39	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$32.49	$11.53	+$1.23	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.72	$8.69	+$0.97	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$2.16	$2.04	-$0.12	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.66	$0.66	+$0	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,322.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$14.25

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

LightParadox

Invested

$616.74

Value

$626.69

PnL

+$9.95

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

MadridTime

Invested

$396.01

Value

$402.47

PnL

+$6.46

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

Oddstorm

Invested

$327.34

Value

$327.34

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$292.58

Value

$321.5

PnL

+$28.91

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Limousin

Invested

$192.5

Value

$195.64

PnL

+$3.14

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

Venusian

Invested

$137.13

Value

$141.21

PnL

+$4.08

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$64.05

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.25

Value

$42.81

PnL

-$1.44

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.79

Value

$28.45

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.9

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$1.39

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.49

Value

$11.53

PnL

+$1.23

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0.97

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.