Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-11-08?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 95¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
1 arb excluded
$30.9K
-$121.97
96.1¢ → 95¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $7.9K | $7.8K | -$99.31 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 96.1¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | -$23.02 | 47% 2130-2385 (4515) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 96¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | -$35.77 | 47% 2177-2413 (4590) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$47.19 | 46% 30579-35678 (66257) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 95.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$88.67 | 50% 32573-32704 (65277) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 95.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$22.34 | 49% 2208-2325 (4533) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$18.52 | 50% 48590-48183 (96773) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0.5 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $359.75 | $385.18 | +$26.39 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $234.71 | $260.65 | +$25.94 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.2¢ | $125.04 | $124.53 | +$0.46 | |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 96.6¢ | $309.12 | $308.64 | -$0.48 | 50% 65490-65806 (131296) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.6¢ | $193.42 | $192.6 | -$0.82 | 47% 2124-2359 (4483) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.74 | $2.01 | +$0.26 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
RN1Invested
$7,936.04
Value
$7.8K
PnL
-$99.31
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
Invested
$6,745.22
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$23.02
Record
47%
2130-2385 (4515)
Invested
$3,843.4
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$35.77
Record
47%
2177-2413 (4590)
Invested
$3,359.82
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$47.19
Record
46%
30579-35678 (66257)
Invested
$2,431.21
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$88.67
Record
50%
32573-32704 (65277)
Invested
$2,364.62
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$22.34
Record
49%
2208-2325 (4533)
Invested
$2,110.1
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$18.52
Record
50%
48590-48183 (96773)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,382.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0.5
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$359.75
Value
$385.18
PnL
+$26.39
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Both legs:
Invested
$309.12
Value
$308.64
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
65490-65806 (131296)
Invested
$193.42
Value
$192.6
PnL
-$0.82
Record
47%
2124-2359 (4483)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$2.01
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.