Will Ceará SC win on 2026-11-08?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 88¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$18.1K
$5.3K
56.9¢ → 88¢
+55% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.8¢ | $8.2K | $12.1K | +$3.9K | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 58.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.7K | +$762.07 | 47% 2148-2414 (4562) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 70.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$234.28 | 47% 2157-2403 (4560) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 57¢ | $696 | $1.1K | +$372.74 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 84¢ | $680.33 | $708.17 | +$27.85 | 50% 48622-48197 (96819) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 42¢ | $399.65 | $167.85 | +$0 | 59% 52427-37141 (89568) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $13.54 | $17.21 | +$3.67 | 76% 4903-1519 (6422) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $14.8 | $14.8 | +$0 | 47% 1640-1847 (3487) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $14.3 | $10.4 | -$3.9 | 46% 12136-14078 (26214) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $5.02 | $4.97 | -$0.06 | 47% 2189-2445 (4634) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $5.07 | $1.88 | -$0.3 | 50% 23496-23498 (46994) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $5 | $1.88 | -$0.28 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
Invested
$8,225.33
Value
$12.1K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$1,970.25
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$762.07
Record
47%
2148-2414 (4562)
Invested
$1,035.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$234.28
Record
47%
2157-2403 (4560)
Invested
$696
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$372.74
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
Invested
$680.33
Value
$708.17
PnL
+$27.85
Record
50%
48622-48197 (96819)
VeryLucky888Invested
$399.65
Value
$167.85
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
52427-37141 (89568)
Invested
$13.54
Value
$17.21
PnL
+$3.67
Record
76%
4903-1519 (6422)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$14.8
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1640-1847 (3487)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$14.3
Value
$10.4
PnL
-$3.9
Record
46%
12136-14078 (26214)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
2189-2445 (4634)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
23496-23498 (46994)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.