Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Criciúma EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 1.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 33¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$164.89

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 32.5¢

-49% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$610.47

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL+$147.01

Over4 traders

Total Value$663.83

Total Shares998

Combined PnL+$17.88

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Underavg 35.8¢	$310.46	$463.37	+$152.91	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 67¢	$430.95	$463.21	+$32.26	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 56¢	$163.89	$151.7	-$12.19	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 30¢	$75	$70	-$5	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$47.6	$45.56	-$2.04	55% 502-403 (905)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 30¢	$38.65	$36.07	-$2.58	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 48¢	$18.32	$25.76	+$7.44	36% 979-1704 (2683)
RN1<$100	Underavg 43¢	$11.18	$7.28	-$3.9	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 32¢	$5.13	$4.49	-$0.64	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$3.51	$3.36	-$0.15	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$2.66	$1.98	-$0.68	47% 936-1037 (1973)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 38¢	$2.06	$1.52	-$0.54	36% 481-851 (1332)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$310.46

Value

$463.37

PnL

+$152.91

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$430.95

Value

$463.21

PnL

+$32.26

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$163.89

Value

$151.7

PnL

-$12.19

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$70

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.6

Value

$45.56

PnL

-$2.04

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$38.65

Value

$36.07

PnL

-$2.58

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$18.32

Value

$25.76

PnL

+$7.44

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$11.18

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$3.9

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$5.13

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.64

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.66

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.68

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.54

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.