Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 69¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$327.02

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 68.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares17,604

Combined PnL+$365.71

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares13,373

Combined PnL-$38.68

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO totoro3miyazaki	Noavg 65.4¢	$11.4K	$11.8K	+$368.24	—
RN1CTR	Yesavg 34¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$24.32	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 35.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$74.26	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$847.49	$851.53	+$4.04	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$657.69	$671.37	+$13.68
└ No leg	Noavg 67.4¢	$189.8	$180.17	-$9.63
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$707.66	$749.28	+$41.63	39% 124-191 (315)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 35.4¢	$562.08	$572.98	+$10.89	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$436.88	$445.77	+$8.88	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$343.78	$288	-$1.45	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 67¢	$67	$64	-$3	48% 280-300 (580)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$29.06	$29.42	+$0.36	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.65	-$0.05	36% 975-1701 (2676)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.8	-$0.05	48% 2157-2304 (4461)

totoro3miyazaki

Invested

$11,407.8

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$368.24

Record

—

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,789.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$24.32

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,143.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$74.26

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$847.49

Value

$851.53

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Both legs:

Yes$657.6935.3¢+$13.68

No$189.867.4¢-$9.63

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$707.66

Value

$749.28

PnL

+$41.63

Record

39%

124-191 (315)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$562.08

Value

$572.98

PnL

+$10.89

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$436.88

Value

$445.77

PnL

+$8.88

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$343.78

Value

$288

PnL

-$1.45

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$67

Value

$64

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

280-300 (580)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$29.06

Value

$29.42

PnL

+$0.36

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.