Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-11-14?

17 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 67¢ · $131K held · ended Nov 14

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$131.2K

Combined PnL

$-5.9K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 66.5¢

+7% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 67%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$48.1K

Total Shares143,488

Combined PnL$-6.0K

No17 traders

Total Value$82.7K

Total Shares132,808

Combined PnL+$144.66

Yes — 15%No — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$53.6K	$47.5K	$-6.1K	12% 4-30 (34)
yabanci	Noavg 61¢	$43.1K	$43.4K	+$353.21	— 6-3 (9)
LI Limousin	Noavg 62.6¢	$9.5K	$9.5K	+$62.55	36% 975-1701 (2676)
RN1	Noavg 63.7¢	$9.6K	$9.2K	-$324.97	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 63¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$52.15	59% 502-347 (849)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 64¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$26.42	36% 477-850 (1327)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 64.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$79.84	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 64.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$47.08	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
BI biying99999	Noavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$11.57	36% 114-200 (314)
tradecraft	Noavg 63.4¢	$963.01	$1.0K	+$52.24	31% 355-790 (1145)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 64¢	$993.98	$1.0K	+$7.77	39% 124-191 (315)
GC GC-P	Noavg 63.9¢	$973.83	$967.4	-$6.43	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-P	Noavg 64.1¢	$905.64	$896.49	-$9.15	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
TO totoro3miyazakiCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$545.16	$553.42	+$8.26	—
LI LightParadox	Noavg 62¢	$305.87	$327.99	+$22.12	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$235.18	$233.15	-$2.04	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.1¢	$122.15	$129.64	+$7.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$113.03	$103.51	-$9.53
MA MadridTime	Noavg 65.3¢	$187.57	$178.11	-$9.46	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$155.63	$154.95	-$0.67	46% 499-596 (1095)
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$93.31	$100.83	+$7.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$62.32	$54.12	-$8.2
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 63¢	$47.88	$48.26	+$0.38	55% 499-401 (900)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 64¢	$30.72	$30.96	+$0.24	32% 99-208 (307)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.65	$13.35	+$0.7	37% 991-1715 (2706)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$4.72	$4.72	-$0	42% 1030-1415 (2445)

DelidelaDeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$53,567.16

Value

$47.5K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

12%

4-30 (34)

yabanci

Invested

$43,092.1

Value

$43.4K

PnL

+$353.21

Record

—

6-3 (9)

Limousin

Invested

$9,479.59

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$62.55

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

RN1

Invested

$9,551.23

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$324.97

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$6,285.73

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$52.15

Record

59%

502-347 (849)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,382.19

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$26.42

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,783.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$79.84

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,143.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$47.08

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

biying99999

Invested

$1,453.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.57

Record

36%

114-200 (314)

tradecraft

Invested

$963.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$52.24

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$993.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.77

Record

39%

124-191 (315)

GC-P

Invested

$973.83

Value

$967.4

PnL

-$6.43

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-P

Invested

$905.64

Value

$896.49

PnL

-$9.15

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

totoro3miyazakiCTR

Yes

Invested

$545.16

Value

$553.42

PnL

+$8.26

Record

—

LightParadox

Invested

$305.87

Value

$327.99

PnL

+$22.12

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$235.18

Value

$233.15

PnL

-$2.04

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Both legs:

No$122.1563.1¢+$7.49

Yes$113.0336¢-$9.53

MadridTime

Invested

$187.57

Value

$178.11

PnL

-$9.46

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$155.63

Value

$154.95

PnL

-$0.67

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

Both legs:

No$93.3162¢+$7.53

Yes$62.3238¢-$8.2

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$47.88

Value

$48.26

PnL

+$0.38

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$0.24

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$12.65

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.7

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 67%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 20 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.