Will Ceará SC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$522.16

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 67.5¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,715

Combined PnL+$31.81

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,571

Combined PnL+$490.35

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 86¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$23.07	59% 502-347 (849)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$337.56	$743.43	+$405.87	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$448.93	$507.65	+$58.72	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
RN1	Noavg 67¢	$241.52	$250.16	+$8.64	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$29.15	$53.59	+$24.44	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 87¢	$47.31	$47.31	+$0	55% 502-403 (905)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.1¢	$27.1	$27.9	+$0.8	76% 257-83 (340)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$17.3	$17.4	+$0.1	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.03	$1.28	+$0.26	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1	$1.25	+$0.25	63% 217-130 (347)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$1,983.63

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$23.07

Record

59%

502-347 (849)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$337.56

Value

$743.43

PnL

+$405.87

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$448.93

Value

$507.65

PnL

+$58.72

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

RN1

Invested

$241.52

Value

$250.16

PnL

+$8.64

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.15

Value

$53.59

PnL

+$24.44

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$47.31

Value

$47.31

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.1

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0.8

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.26

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

63%

217-130 (347)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.