Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Londrina EC, while the market favors Botafogo FC (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Botafogo FC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Londrina EC (40%) · Londrina EC at 0.5¢ · $429 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Londrina EC
5
Londrina EC 40%
$429.14
-$182.29
63¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLondrina EC at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Botafogo FC 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Botafogo FCavg 37.2¢ | $185.01 | $244.01 | +$59 | 50% 21194-21457 (42651) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Londrina ECavg 63.3¢ | $385.06 | $125.64 | -$259.42 | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Botafogo FCavg 49.3¢ | $28.94 | $44.87 | +$15.93 | 47% 11734-13452 (25186) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Botafogo FCavg 35.3¢ | $5.76 | $7.99 | +$2.23 | 50% 25834-25541 (51375) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Londrina ECavg 51.2¢ | $6.66 | $6.63 | -$0.03 | 53% 1437-1278 (2715) |
Invested
$185.01
Value
$244.01
PnL
+$59
Record
50%
21194-21457 (42651)
Invested
$385.06
Value
$125.64
PnL
-$259.42
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
Invested
$28.94
Value
$44.87
PnL
+$15.93
Record
47%
11734-13452 (25186)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$2.23
Record
50%
25834-25541 (51375)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
1437-1278 (2715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.