Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

São Bernardo FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$322.28

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$677.95

Total Shares740

Combined PnL+$82.75

Under3 traders

Total Value$120.83

Total Shares1,404

Combined PnL-$405.03

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 59.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$98.61	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.4¢	$849.91	$615.31	-$234.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.9¢	$457.84	$593.82	+$135.98
RO Rocky31	Overavg 87.7¢	$428.98	$488.67	+$59.68	31% 58-128 (186)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 63.7¢	$240.27	$240.13	-$0.15	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.3¢	$96.48	$137.4	+$40.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.7¢	$143.79	$102.73	-$41.06
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$119.48	$115.5	-$3.98	53% 852-766 (1618)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 47¢	$55.78	$58.15	+$2.37	34% 639-1259 (1898)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 87¢	$48.72	$55.72	+$7	78% 726-207 (933)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 54¢	$35.51	$52.82	+$17.31	48% 652-699 (1351)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 68¢	$25.9	$21.6	-$4.3	45% 465-578 (1043)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.75	$4.75	-$0	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 15¢	$0.3	$0.98	+$0.68	42% 662-917 (1579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 34.4¢	$401.63	$0.58	-$401.05	55% 1738-1449 (3187)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,307.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$98.61

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Over$849.9159.4¢-$234.59

Under$457.8443.9¢+$135.98

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$428.98

Value

$488.67

PnL

+$59.68

Record

31%

58-128 (186)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$240.27

Value

$240.13

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

Under$96.4838.3¢+$40.91

Over$143.7963.7¢-$41.06

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$119.48

Value

$115.5

PnL

-$3.98

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$55.78

Value

$58.15

PnL

+$2.37

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$48.72

Value

$55.72

PnL

+$7

Record

78%

726-207 (933)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$35.51

Value

$52.82

PnL

+$17.31

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$25.9

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$4.3

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.68

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$401.63

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$401.05

Record

55%

1738-1449 (3187)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.