São Bernardo FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $752 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$752.49
$215.18
32.8¢ → 55¢
+68% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 39.8¢ | $234.91 | $319.78 | +$84.87 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 26¢ | $143.94 | $243.24 | +$102.9 | 53% 852-766 (1618) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $117.35 | $132.41 | +$15.06 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $17.77 | $28.56 | +$10.79 | 33% 620-1253 (1873) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 73.4¢ | $17.53 | $13.14 | -$4.39 | 55% 1738-1449 (3187) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $5.76 | $9.26 | +$3.5 | 35% 657-1232 (1889) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $2.4 | $3.86 | +$1.46 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $2.25 | +$1 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
Invested
$234.91
Value
$319.78
PnL
+$84.87
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
VeryLucky888Invested
$143.94
Value
$243.24
PnL
+$102.9
Record
53%
852-766 (1618)
RN1CTRInvested
$117.35
Value
$132.41
PnL
+$15.06
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
Invested
$17.77
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$10.79
Record
33%
620-1253 (1873)
Invested
$17.53
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$4.39
Record
55%
1738-1449 (3187)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$3.5
Record
35%
657-1232 (1889)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$3.86
PnL
+$1.46
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$1
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.