Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will São Bernardo FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 37¢ · $370 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$370.21
$62.7
27.8¢ → 36.5¢
+31% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $133.16 | $161.8 | +$28.64 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $67.93 | $82.49 | +$14.56 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $63.67 | $77.31 | +$13.64 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $96.69 | $35.75 | +$3.97 | 34% 639-1259 (1898) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $3.7 | $4.65 | +$0.96 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $2.85 | $3.23 | +$0.38 | 46% 1757-2031 (3788) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.93 | $2.34 | +$0.41 | 33% 620-1253 (1873) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.7 | -$0.05 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $0.74 | $0.93 | +$0.19 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
Invested
$133.16
Value
$161.8
PnL
+$28.64
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$67.93
Value
$82.49
PnL
+$14.56
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$63.67
Value
$77.31
PnL
+$13.64
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$96.69
Value
$35.75
PnL
+$3.97
Record
34%
639-1259 (1898)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.96
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.23
PnL
+$0.38
Record
46%
1757-2031 (3788)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.41
Record
33%
620-1253 (1873)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.93
PnL
+$0.19
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.