Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-11-14?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$200.25
50.8¢ → 57.5¢
+13% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$10.08 | 55% 1709-1415 (3124) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$71.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $281.96 | $343.26 | +$61.3 | |
LI Limousin | Noavg 52¢ | $585.97 | $631.04 | +$45.07 | 33% 589-1191 (1780) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 50.7¢ | $492.72 | $543.72 | +$50.99 | 34% 610-1204 (1814) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 50.2¢ | $414.55 | $462.78 | +$48.23 | 35% 622-1179 (1801) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 47.2¢ | $293.3 | $348.12 | +$54.82 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56¢ | $140 | $140 | -$0 | 28% 171-442 (613) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $56.56 | $56.56 | -$0 | 33% 593-1215 (1808) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $51.87 | $44.99 | -$6.88 | 47% 1724-1982 (3706) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 50.1¢ | $28.09 | $31.43 | +$3.34 | 23% 192-655 (847) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 50.4¢ | $24.66 | $27.4 | +$2.74 | 59% 3556-2431 (5987) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $10.12 | $12.06 | +$1.94 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
Invested
$1,514.56
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$10.08
Record
55%
1709-1415 (3124)
Both legs:
Invested
$585.97
Value
$631.04
PnL
+$45.07
Record
33%
589-1191 (1780)
Invested
$492.72
Value
$543.72
PnL
+$50.99
Record
34%
610-1204 (1814)
Invested
$414.55
Value
$462.78
PnL
+$48.23
Record
35%
622-1179 (1801)
Invested
$293.3
Value
$348.12
PnL
+$54.82
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$140
Value
$140
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
171-442 (613)
Invested
$56.56
Value
$56.56
PnL
-$0
Record
33%
593-1215 (1808)
Invested
$51.87
Value
$44.99
PnL
-$6.88
Record
47%
1724-1982 (3706)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$28.09
Value
$31.43
PnL
+$3.34
Record
23%
192-655 (847)
Invested
$24.66
Value
$27.4
PnL
+$2.74
Record
59%
3556-2431 (5987)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$1.94
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.