Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 79¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$4.9K
-$0.17
78.5¢ → 78.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$10.31 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $999.58 | $1.0K | +$23.8 | 2% 8-502 (510) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 79¢ | $801.9 | $796.82 | -$5.08 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79¢ | $654.58 | $650.44 | -$4.14 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 79¢ | $220.24 | $218.85 | -$1.39 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 79¢ | $173.97 | $172.87 | -$1.1 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
FE ferdinand2 | Noavg 79¢ | $161.95 | $160.93 | -$1.02 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 79¢ | $146.33 | $145.4 | -$0.93 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $164 | $87 | -$0 | 83% 93-19 (112) |
Invested
$1,628.61
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$10.31
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$999.58
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$23.8
Record
2%
8-502 (510)
Invested
$801.9
Value
$796.82
PnL
-$5.08
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
Invested
$654.58
Value
$650.44
PnL
-$4.14
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$220.24
Value
$218.85
PnL
-$1.39
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$173.97
Value
$172.87
PnL
-$1.1
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$161.95
Value
$160.93
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$146.33
Value
$145.4
PnL
-$0.93
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$164
Value
$87
PnL
-$0
Record
83%
93-19 (112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.