Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$102.41
-$1.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $37.22 | $36.49 | -$0.73 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $29.06 | $28.49 | -$0.57 | 49% 1777-1875 (3652) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $18.91 | $20.51 | +$1.6 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $10 | $8 | -$2.47 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $5.79 | $6.53 | +$0.74 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $2.86 | $2.4 | -$0.46 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
Invested
$37.22
Value
$36.49
PnL
-$0.73
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
Invested
$29.06
Value
$28.49
PnL
-$0.57
Record
49%
1777-1875 (3652)
Invested
$18.91
Value
$20.51
PnL
+$1.6
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$8
PnL
-$2.47
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.