Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-11-08?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 61¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$70.68

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 60.5¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,705

Combined PnL+$90.38

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,809

Combined PnL-$19.7

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$117.21	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.8¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$332.56
└ No leg	Noavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$215.35
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$419.8	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LI Limousin	Noavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$188.59	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 45.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$178.22	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$398.14	76% 4878-1514 (6392)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.8K	$978.85	+$26.46	53% 2982-2598 (5580)
SU sugar-superCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$500	$790	+$290	50% 406-406 (812)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 45.3¢	$568.62	$589.9	+$21.28	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$514.26	$450.33	-$63.92	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.3¢	$359.72	$284	-$75.72
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$154.54	$166.34	+$11.8
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 60¢	$567.61	$407.54	-$160.07	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 46.2¢	$512.72	$228.16	-$8.82	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 59.2¢	$188.48	$157.73	-$30.75	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 66.4¢	$170.87	$122.7	-$48.17	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
dips.	Noavg 72.3¢	$103.37	$76.23	-$13.88	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 59¢	$81.6	$67.08	-$14.52	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$82.27	$63.02	-$19.25	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60¢	$30	$24.25	-$5.75	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.3¢	$20	$22.06	+$2.06	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.98	+$0.08	52% 6045-5577 (11622)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,582.96

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$117.21

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Yes$2,140.5546.8¢-$332.56

No$1,442.4152.6¢+$215.35

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,441.06

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$419.8

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Limousin

Invested

$1,279.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$188.59

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,442.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$178.22

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

ARocky33

Invested

$1,477.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$398.14

Record

76%

4878-1514 (6392)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,763.7

Value

$978.85

PnL

+$26.46

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

sugar-superCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$790

PnL

+$290

Record

50%

406-406 (812)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$568.62

Value

$589.9

PnL

+$21.28

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$514.26

Value

$450.33

PnL

-$63.92

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Both legs:

Yes$359.7251.3¢-$75.72

No$154.5455.3¢+$11.8

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$567.61

Value

$407.54

PnL

-$160.07

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$512.72

Value

$228.16

PnL

-$8.82

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$188.48

Value

$157.73

PnL

-$30.75

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

LightParadox

Invested

$170.87

Value

$122.7

PnL

-$48.17

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

dips.

Invested

$103.37

Value

$76.23

PnL

-$13.88

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$81.6

Value

$67.08

PnL

-$14.52

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$82.27

Value

$63.02

PnL

-$19.25

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$24.25

PnL

-$5.75

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$22.06

PnL

+$2.06

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

6045-5577 (11622)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.